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Evaluation of Quality of the Radio Astronomical Prediction
of Flare Activity

Russian version

    We evaluated the quality of flare activity forecasting in active regions based on spectral-polarization observations at RATAN-600 in the wide range of radio waves (Fig.1). The method is aimed at short-term 1-3-days flare forecast. Proton events are considered as part of a general flare issue. Making a reliable prediction is a complex process due to the multiparameter and multidimensional system of variations of plasma parameters and many nonlinear relations. In our case, we use radio astronomical estimations of preflare situation occurrence based on a detailed analysis of the intensity spectrum and polarization of the active-region radiation with high sensitivity by the radiation flux.
    The prediction criterion is based on the ratio of radiation fluxes from an active region at two wavelengths of 3 cm and 8 cm (F3cm/F8cm≥0.8) for the radiation level F3cm>10 s.f.u. (1 s.f.u. = 10-22Wm-2Hz-1).
    We used the Tanaka-Enome criterion for systematic forecasting at RATAN-600 and, owing to higher sensitivity by the polarized radiation flux to the s.f.u. level, we significantly improved the prediction efficiency for individual active regions (see Fig.2).

Bogod V.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V. (SAO RAS) jointly with Svidsky P.M. (Institute of Applied Geophysics Russian Committee on Hydrometeorology), Everstov N.P. (ITMO University).
Bogod V.M., Svidsky P.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V., Everstov N.P. On Methods of Predicting Solar Activity Based on Radio Observations. Proceedings of the XX Conference "Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics-2016", St.-Petersburg, October 2016.

Contact - Bogod V.M.
Fig.1. Example of positive flare prediction on June 18, 2015 in the active region NOAA 12371. On the upper left-hand panel, there are multiwave scans from RATAN-600 on June 17, 2015; at the bottom, there are the data of the prediction evaluation (in red); on the right-hand panel, there is an example of the proton event on June 18, 2015 from the data of the GOES satellite
Fig.2. Statistical measurements from the forecast during the interval from January 1, 2011 to January 1, 2015. Comparison of the ratio of fluxes at frequencies of 10 GHz and 3 GHz and the monitoring data in the X ray range. The points above the dashed line indicate a positive prognosis of flares [1-2]